Experimental historical application
Historical crisis simulator
Compare how the model processes observed crisis pressures from 1960 to 2024 under alternative decision rules.
The crisis series is the paper's 60/40 country-year index. Identity evolves dynamically; sovereignty remains fixed.
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Data scope and limitations
The experimental panel uses the current EU27 and therefore omits the United Kingdom during its membership years. Contemporary country characteristics are used outside their observed years, and documented missing crisis components are set to zero. The qualified-majority series uses weighted aggregation before the panel reaches fifteen countries. These choices are retained visibly in the downloadable data.