Italian Elections for Dummies: a flow-chart

The Italian elections are approaching. After 3 governments led by the Democratic Party (Letta, Renzi, Gentiloni), the non-winner of the 2013 General Election, the country is heading towards an impossible electoral conundrum.  This article discusses the possible outcomes of the election. While of course we do not know who will win, among all possible outcomes (many of which are described in the flow-chart below)  3 appear similarly likely.

First Scenario: the Grand Comeback. Currently, the most likely scenario is that the right-wing coalition, led by Silvio Berlusconi (you might have heard of him), may bring home a big win. Hence, they might be able able to form a pure right wing government of their own (dark blue square in the diagram). This, however, may seem unlikely. More probably, Berlusconi will win the election but will lack the numbers to create a coalition government; at that point, he will be forced to seek an agreement with the Democratic Party (PD) to create a "grand coalition" (light blue square) or ally with the Five Stars Movement to create a "populist coalition" (dark green square in the diagram) . another possibility is that, following the melt-down of the PD and with the support of disgruntled members of the 5Stars Movement, Berlusconi may forge a "responsibility coalition" where those individual MPs provide external support for his government.

Second Scenario: the Known Unknowns. The second scenario (Grand Coalition) largely depends on two "known unknowns" : how strong has the Northern League (LN) performed as a part of the right-wing coalition, and how bad the Democratic Party has been hammered. If the Northern League is the real driving force of the right-wing coalition, then the likelihood of an agreement decrease substantially since The PD and the NL have diametrically opposed positions on pretty much everything, from pensions reform, to Europe, to migration, to vaccination policies (just to name some of the main topics in this campaign). Similarly, if the PD gets heavily hammered, the centrist leadership imposed by Renzi and Gentiloni won't survive; at that point the PD will undergo a change in leadership towards more radical positions, preventing an agreement. If either of these events occur, the chances for a coalition agreement are reduced to the bare minimum.

Third Scenario: Try again This leads us to the third scenario: parliamentary deadlock and new elections within 3 months. It is hard to predict the likelihood of such scenario, but it cannot be excluded since the main known unknowns- the relative performance of PD and LN- are not stable in surveys. The results of such an early election, furthermore, are impossible to estimate now: how would markets react? will the parties agree, at least, to mint a new electoral law? will the leadership of the PD remains the same? etc.

Moreover, there is a "main unknown": the Five Stars Movement. In fact, I am amazed by the fact that even now, 5 years later their first general election, with hundred of members in both the Italian and European Parliaments, the Five Stars Movement's behaviour remains completely impossible to predict. To give the international reader an example: they believe they are pro-European but they sit in the European Parliament group with Niegel Farage and let some of them promoting an anti-Euro referendum. The same uncertainty applies to almost all policy areas, from economic policy, to migration, to environment. What we know for sure is that the M5S will (1) perform very well, but not enough to win; and (2) will bring to the parliament at least some disgruntled delegates who are in open conflict with the party's leadership already beforehand, due to a party finances scandal. These MPs may defect the day the enter the parliament, or support a right-wing government if enough payoff is offered.

Furthermore, we do not know what the M5S plans to do in term of alliances. Will they stick to the eternal "never alliances" policy? If they do they might preserve their "purity" image, but if others follow suit this might push the country to early elections again; at that point, they may suffer an electoral setback since the voters will know that (1) they won't make alliances, and (2) they won't win alone. On the other hand, they may forge a coalition agreement now. Will they do it with M5S nemesis, Berlusconi? seems scifi literature, but over the years the M5S has increasingly targeted Renzi and the PD rather than Berlusconi. Likely such "populist coalition" (dark green square in the flow chart) would depend on the few shared policy options: reversal of the Pensions reforms, end to Austerity of all kinds, anti-European stance. This would however give to the PD the role of the sole opposition party, which may help in cleanse its public image and decrease some "government fatigue" after 7 straight years of being the strongest party in a government.

If all these options fail- a possibility not to exclude- then it may very well be that the country is heading towards new elections real soon.