Interactive research tool

Crisis-led Integration Simulator

Explore how different crises and political conditions may influence European integration.

EU identityIdentity values are fixed at Eurobarometer 104.1 (Autumn 2025) levels.Identity values start from Eurobarometer 104.1 (Autumn 2025) but can evolve dynamically.

Each country starts from its own share reporting very or fairly strong attachment to the EU. Fixed mode holds that share constant throughout the run. Dynamic mode updates it after each period using perceived integration benefits and similarity of crisis exposure; values remain between 0 and 1. The similarity term also increases identity when all countries experience no crisis. These changes are model assumptions, not forecasts of survey responses. Country sovereignty predispositions are held fixed in both modes, following the simplified paper baseline; only identity changes between these options.

Crisis patternDecision rule

First periodDuration

Repeat every ten periodsShock intensity 0.05Time horizon 30

Final integration0.664

Change from start+0.364

Peak integration0.664

Simulated path

Integration over time

Reading this scenario

All member states face the same shock, limiting cross-country asymmetry. The decision rule shapes whether national pressures translate into a common institutional response.

Model paper

Anchor working paper

Read the model, assumptions, calibration, and dynamic-identity sensitivity analysis.

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Observed crises

Historical crisis simulator

Explore experimental historical crisis paths and compare specifications.

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Full controls

Advanced model options

Configure every active global parameter and inspect the resulting path.

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